Listen carefully—because the numbers don’t lie, and they’re screaming at us right now.

The Buffett Indicator, Warren Buffett’s favorite barometer for market valuation, is sitting at ≈218%. What does that mean? The stock market today is valued at more than twice the size of the U.S. economy itself. That’s not just high—it’s stratospheric.

Now, you don’t need me to tell you: when valuations are stretched this far, you don’t keep playing the game the same way. You don’t bet blind. You get tactical. You shift into positions where you hold the leverage, where the odds tilt in your favor while the rest of the crowd is still partying on borrowed time.

This is one of those moments where insiders—our insiders in San Diego, Hawaiʻi, and the coastal multifamily/1031 space—have to pause and ask themselves: Do I want to be the one reacting to a correction, or do I want to set the terms of the negotiation before the market does it for me?

The Buffett Indicator at 218% is not just an interesting statistic—it’s a warning flare. To give you context:

This doesn’t mean a crash tomorrow. It’s not about making panic moves. But it does mean risk is asymmetric. Upside gets capped because so much of the good news is already priced in. Meanwhile, downside risk grows teeth because any disappointment—slower growth, sticky inflation, geopolitical shocks—can tip the balance.

Think about it like this: if you’re negotiating from a position where the other side already feels like they’ve won, what leverage do you really have left? That’s where equity investors are today—optimistic, but with very little cushion if the deal turns against them.

For insiders, this is the time to read the signals differently. Instead of asking, How do I squeeze a little more juice out of an overheated stock market? the better question is: Where can I move capital into positions that hold value, produce cash flow, and keep leverage on my side?

Now, let’s talk about the other side of the equation: interest rates.

Markets are currently betting on a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. At first glance, that feels like relief—a loosening of the screws after two years of tightening. But here’s the catch: when valuations are already stretched, a cut doesn’t guarantee new upside. It just stops the bleeding for a while.

Let’s run the scenarios:

The real takeaway? Rate direction matters less than predictability. When investors can’t forecast where rates are going, they chase liquidity. That’s why real estate and private debt become powerful plays—they offer stability in an environment where nothing else does.

It’s like walking into a negotiation and realizing the other side can’t make up their mind. That indecision gives you the upper hand—if you know where to position.

Nowhere is this dynamic clearer than in real estate, particularly in constrained coastal markets like San Diego and Hawaiʻi.

San Diego’s multifamily market continues to be a standout because of one stubborn fact: supply can’t keep up with demand. Zoning restrictions, limited land, and steady population growth create a structural imbalance. Even when borrowing costs rise, NOI (net operating income) holds up because demand for rentals doesn’t go away.

For 1031 investors, this is critical. San Diego coastal multifamily remains one of the few markets where cap rates stay resilient even in a higher-rate environment. That means you’re not buying into temporary hype—you’re buying into a long-term imbalance that continues to pay dividends.

The picture is more nuanced. Certain sectors, like condos, have seen flat or modestly negative performance year-over-year. That might scare off casual investors. But here’s where insiders see opportunity: prime-location multifamily with strong tenancy is still sought after. In fact, with fewer speculative buyers at the table, serious investors gain leverage in negotiations.

And if rates even stabilize—let alone tick down—you’ll see deal flow increase. Buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity suddenly step back in. That creates a wave of competition, and insiders who’ve already planted flags are in the driver’s seat.

The bottom line: in both San Diego and Hawaiʻi, multifamily demand is sticky. And in a market where valuations in equities are floating on sentiment, “sticky” is gold.

This is where United Legacy has a unique advantage.

For insiders, that means two things: you can lock in opportunities at fairer multiples today, and you can structure deals with more negotiating leverage than you’ll likely have six months from now.

This is how insiders position themselves—not by chasing momentum, but by stepping into spaces where the odds are quietly shifting in their favor.

Here’s the part most people miss: investor psychology.

Right now, we’re seeing three dominant behaviors:

The blind spot? Most investors underestimate how quickly sentiment can turn. We’ve seen it before: one Fed statement, one inflation surprise, one geopolitical shock—and suddenly the “sure thing” in equities evaporates.

Insiders who ignore this are playing with fire. Insiders who anticipate it are playing with leverage.

This is where negotiation strategy meets investment strategy.

If you’re sitting on cash, the real question is: what’s that cash doing for you? Cash feels safe, but in an inflationary environment, it’s quietly losing purchasing power. Tactical investors are repositioning a portion into fixed income or debt vehicles backed by strong collateral—because those deliver yield without swinging wildly with market headlines.

If a 1031 exchange is on your radar, this is a strategic time to line up targets. Coastal multifamily isn’t a “get in later” game. By year-end, you may see more competition returning, and deals that feel accessible now could tighten. Acting before the herd means negotiating with sellers on your terms, not theirs.

The mindset here is simple: don’t speculate—strategize. Don’t chase—position. In negotiation terms, don’t talk yourself into the other side’s frame. Hold your ground and make the market play to your terms.

Valuations are at record highs. Rate cuts are possible, but the future path of monetary policy remains uncertain. And yet, in coastal real estate, supply-demand dynamics continue to create resilient opportunities.

This isn’t the moment to gamble. This is the moment to negotiate with the market itself.

So here’s the question every insider needs to ask: Am I positioning like a participant in the crowd, or am I negotiating like someone who sees the leverage point others are missing?

At United Legacy, our role is to make sure you never step into a negotiation where the odds are stacked against you. This is the time to be strategic, not speculative—to secure assets and income streams that hold value when the rest of the market is wobbling.

I look forward to connecting with each of you individually and exploring how to turn these signals into your next advantage.

– Mehdi Amini
CEO, United Legacy